Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 4.214628 5.042912 5.963691 7.059265 8.323152 9.731200 11.414132
2025-03-16 2.791686 3.835683 5.133680 6.847716 9.031018 11.696865 15.173018
2025-03-23 2.144329 3.315894 4.915677 7.214750 10.380856 14.527714 20.298129
2025-03-30 1.640151 2.824624 4.583583 7.304773 11.308912 16.868031 25.023954
2025-04-06 1.274234 2.425189 4.270412 7.318914 12.071526 19.006962 29.645402
2025-04-13 1.003240 2.099028 3.985751 7.295284 12.728477 21.012297 34.219229
2025-04-20 0.891823 2.018902 4.076486 7.864092 14.341840 24.562068 41.349016
2025-04-27 0.756416 1.856230 3.986301 8.099754 15.422239 27.363879 47.545800
2025-05-04 0.656160 1.737121 3.948709 8.410555 16.644942 30.475242 54.444776
2025-05-11 0.542920 1.558231 3.758653 8.403348 17.296497 32.684050 60.032552
2025-05-18 0.428355 1.341945 3.447568 8.108546 17.379947 33.918666 64.075285
2025-05-25 0.330811 1.136265 3.114621 7.710761 17.209721 34.674508 67.331106
2025-06-01 0.271029 1.015285 2.954452 7.662696 17.734336 36.757630 73.128090
2025-06-08 0.216826 0.891154 2.760615 7.511625 18.038802 38.471799 78.419137
2025-06-15 0.196971 0.868180 2.816800 7.937407 19.576523 42.614244 88.376805
2025-06-22 0.167659 0.801962 2.744007 8.045440 20.446943 45.537029 96.266896
2025-06-29 0.140293 0.731105 2.641993 8.064506 21.121671 48.122187 103.682782
2025-07-06 0.116417 0.662677 2.530487 8.040146 21.692341 50.535427 110.913659
2025-07-13 0.111632 0.672349 2.658023 8.658649 23.792899 56.191359 124.726748
2025-07-20 0.098947 0.641433 2.651233 8.914733 25.069591 60.231009 135.594061
2025-07-27 0.089344 0.620615 2.672934 9.252168 26.570495 64.833654 147.820091
2025-08-03 0.075092 0.568903 2.577823 9.244371 27.231495 67.697272 156.714993
2025-08-10 0.058843 0.495696 2.386770 8.924377 27.081979 68.799801 162.091545